Technical Analysis Post
Daily Market Report: Expert Technical & Fundamental Insights – 05.02.2025
EURUSD
Two consecutive days of the positive closing, EURUSD traded slightly higher today at $1.0393, waiting for important PMI numbers from EZ , Germany, France , Spain & Italy. The correction in USD index by 0.20% today was the reason why EUR gained. In the meantime, all eyes will remain on the developments from the US & risk sentiments.
1H price action is heading higher to $1.0450, approaching from 70 on RSI ( overbought). Trend index in 15M is still bullish & traders’ sentiments were bullish by only 17% of the traders.
USDJPY
Strong wages growth in Japan last December supported the probability of further rate hikes by BoJ, that’s why Yen strengthened today & USDJPY fell by -0.76% to 153.14, the lowest in seven weeks. What the traders are going to watch is the US bond yields & US job market later this week which will have impact on both the yields & Fed policy.
It broke the pivot, edging lower to the 1st major support even if its oversold now ( 25 RSI). Hourly trend index is bearish & oversold, and traders remained bearish.
GBPUSD
Risk appetite improved, sending GBPUSD higher today to $1.2501, waiting for tomorrow , big Thursday from the UK with BoE rate decision & BoE governor Bailey speech. Reducing the rates by BoE was already priced in, so the traders will look for other macro factors & central bank’s short-term outlook. PMI services for the month of January will be due later today.
Heading higher to the last major resistance with bullish trend index. Forecast polls showed that the traders are 40% bullish & 20% bearish, such a percentage may support GBP.
Gold
Five consecutive days of the strong performance, gold gained today & rose by 0.63% to a new record high at $2859 per ounce , never failed our bullish outlook. Gold’s performance reflects the global chaos from Trump’s problematic policies & the retaliation by other countries including China , Mexico & Canada. China service PMI fell in January to 51 from 52.2 in December, weaker China’s data will keep PBoC’s loosening policies intact.
As said yesterday, no bearish sentiments. 1H trend index is fully bullish , and there are no bearish sentiments among the traders. 1H RSI is already overbought, but price action is still advancing to the last major resistance.
Silver
Following the performance of gold, silver traded higher today at $32.25 per ounce, the highest since last November 2024. According to Silver Institute, 2025 will be another year of market deficit in silver, in other words, the demand for silver is likely to remain strong, mainly from industrial activities & retail investments.
One the way to the last major resistance, 1H trend index is bullish. If silver breaks 32.30, then $32.50 will be the next target. $32 is support ( 1h chart).
Oil – WTI
According to API, US weekly crude oil inventories rose by 5 million barrels last week, surpassing the expectations of 3 M barrels. Crude oil prices fell today, WTI $72.57PB, Brent $75.93 PB. On Tuesday, Trump announced his maximum pressure campaign on Iran as he aims to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero & counters its regional influence. While the geopolitical tensions remain high in the ME, the markets will keep focusing on PMI numbers & US oil policy. EIA will release the US weekly crude oil inventories later today.
Technically speaking, hourly trend index remained bearish, somehow different from the traders’ forecast that remained bullish by 60% without bearish bets, so what does that mean? It means that oil prices may not fall quickly ( if any).
DAX
DAX index futures traded weaker today & fell by -0.56% after closing higher on Tuesday by 0.4% at 21511. German PMI numbers in services & composite index for the month of January will be due later today. In the meantime, EZ leaders are trying to negotiate with Trump’s admin how not to impose new tariffs on EZ exports to the US. After heavy losses on Monday, automakers stocks slightly recovered yesterday, Mercedes 0.23%, BMW 0.57% and Porsche 0.87%.
1H RSI is near by support with mixed sentiments. 21300 is support & 21590 is the resistance. Volatility index is expanding,.
Nasdaq
US stock futures traded lower today after closing positively on Tuesday, Dow Jones 0.3%, SPX0.72% and Nasdaq gained 1.35%. Alphabet’s stock ( parent company of Google) dropped by 7% after it missed revenue expectations. Investors are trying to monitor & absorb the dynamics of the global trade & US new tariffs’ impact domestically & globally. Important economic data from the US for today, PMI services & ADP employment in private sector before the US nonfarm payrolls on Friday.
Volatility index remained high with bullish trend in 15M chart. Since the beginning of this week and after losses, markets’ sentiments recovered & bullish bets were higher than bearish ones. 21550 will be the next target, 21240 is support.
BTCUSD
Major cryptocurrency started recovering today, BTC traded at $97980, Eth rose 1.6% to $2766, Cardano 1.5% to $0.7531 and XRP dropped to $2.5179. According to CNBC, Davis Sacks, newly appointed White House crypto czar, collaborates with lawmakers on potential regulations of digital assets, mainly focusing on stablecoins. Bitcoin is still up by 5% YTD, followed by 21% in XRP while both Eth & Cardano remained down by -16% & -10% respectively.
Traders’ forecasts were mixed between 25% for bullish & 25% bearish with bearish trend index. $96400 & $94600 are support levels, $100K will be the next target.