Technical Analysis Post

Daily Market Report: Expert Technical & Fundamental Insights – 21.01.2025

| 21 January, 2025 at 12:00 GMT

EURUSD

After it gained by almost 0.70% in a week, EURUSD fell today & traded at $1.0379 as USD index gained momentum after the inauguration of the new US President Donald Trump. In the meantime, ZEW survey from Germany & EZ will be released later today, showing the economic sentiments & current situation. Markets are still expecting further rate cut by ECB. 

1H RSI started falling from an overbought level, targeting $1.0350 then $1.0335. Trading may stay choppy until today afternoon.

USDJPY

Big week ahead from Japan where BoJ is likely to increase the rates by 0.25% on Friday, Japan’s CPI numbers on Thursday & exports on Wednesday. USDJPY traded slightly lower today at 155.41, still highly correlated to the upcoming Trump’s policies & its consequences on the US bonds yields. Keep in mind that the higher the inflation in Japan, the stronger the probability for higher rates from BoJ. Higher volatility ahead.  

Price action is still showing choppy trading, without new deep re-positioning. 156.30 is resistance, 155 is support for day traders. Higher rates from Japan (if happen) may result in stronger  Yen.

GBPUSD

After losing by more than -2% in a month, GBPUSD gained last week by 0.55% but fell again today & traded at $1.2275, the lowest level since late 2023. Average earnings & unemployment rate from the Uk will be due later today. Inflation in the UK fell to 2.5% in last December, in line with BoE’s forecasts. FYI, GBPUSD lost by almost -2% since the beginning of this year. 

Hourly price action is not showing positive momentum now, however the correction to $1.2330 is possible. $1.22 is support then $1.2160.

Gold

Gold traders have ignored the market’s buzz about Trump’s inauguration & kept buying. Gold advanced today to $2724 per ounce, still up by 1.85% in a week. It is important to say that Trump’s policies may send the global inflation & cost of the global trade higher which is good scenario for gold bulls, not to forget that Trump may push for weaker USD & intervene in the Fed monetary policies. 

Momentum indicator remained positive, showing continuous bullish bets to $2740. $2704 & $2693 are support levels. Trend remained bullish with stronger bullish bets than bearish ones.

Silver

Silver beat gold since the start of this year & rose by 6%, gold 3.82% YTD. Silver traded slightly higher today at $30.61 per ounce, heavily relying on China – USA upcoming agreements & expected clash over the US new tariffs. It is correct that uncertainty may support higher demand for tangible assets, however the traders must be cautious as the disruption of global trade (if happens) may have negative impact on silver’s demand outlook. 

$30.90 will be the next important resistance, $30.15 is support. Higher volatility is likely to tale place throughout the week, but the range of daily trading may stay limited.

Oil – WTI

2025 seems positive for oil bulls & oil companies as oil is still up by 7% YTD, WTI traded higher today at $76.62 PB, the highest since last October, Brent $79.86PB. Traders are waiting for more details about the sanctions targeting major oil exporters including Russia, Iran & Venezuela. Trump announced before that he wants cheaper oil prices for the American consumers which may result in more oil supply. Weekly crude oil inventories by API will be due later today. 

Price action supports further drop to $75.90 amid tight trading. Daily chart is falling from an overbought level which indicates to bearish bets than the daily one, so be careful.

DAX

DAX futures traded weaker today after it closed at 21005 on Monday, new record high. Economic sentiment & current situation from Germany will be due later today, while the major focus is likely to remain on Trump’s policies towards EU & if the US new admin will go further with more tariffs on EU exports to America. Auto sector advanced on Monday with solid gains from Porsche, BMW, Daimler Truck and Mercedes. 

Even if the DAX futures traded weaker today, daily chart is bullish, while the hourly candles are showing probable short-term correction to 20800 then 20650. 1H RSI is falling from an overbought level, supporting further drop as well.

Nasdaq

US major stock indexes remained on the gaining track since the beginning of 2025 with more than 2% of the gains, US stock futures traded higher today, Dow Jones 43603, SPX 6006, &Nasdaq 21457. President Trump announced that he was considering 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico as early as Feb, but the markets’ participants still believe in Trump’s pro-business policies. All focus will remain on the new US admin & President Trump’ new initiatives. 

21600 will be the next resistance then 21700. 21300 is support for day-traders.

BTCUSD

FYI, BTC gained by more than 150% YoY, still up by 10% YTD, followed by 15% in Cardano, 47% in Ripple but Eth is still down by -3% in 2025. After hitting new record high at $108K, BTC fell to 101K as Trump didn’t mention any update about BTC in his inauguration speech on Monday, however Trump’s pro-crypto policies are likely to remain intact. It is important to say that crypto market was already priced in Trump’s support for crypto, that’s why the strong volatility is here to stay. 

$100 is an important support & psychological level then $97K. As long as BTC breaks again $103K then more gains (technically) are likely to happen. Better to expand the technical perspective from hourly to daily & weekly.