Weekly Outlook

Weekly Market Overview: Trump’s Trade & Stocks’ Rally

| 25 April, 2025 at 12:00 GMT

         Since the start of Trump’s problematic tariffs, global stock indexes remained under huge pressure, not only because of tariffs’ consequences, but also because of the bearish outlook traders started to realize that the rally in equities could be disrupted & the global growth may weaken in 2025. This week proved to everyone that politics still matters, no matter what the economic fundamentals look like, at least for now. Numbers below show that the US equity indexes rally & gained by more than 5% in a week, followed by other EU stock indexes in Germany 4.3%, Spain 2.4%, France 3.2% & Japan 2.6%.  Equities: Trading Economics

          According to Bloomberg, China may exempt some US goods from tariffs as costs rise, China’s government is considering suspending its 125% tariffs on some US imports. In the meantime, President Trump clarified many times in the last few days that his admin will be ready to negotiate the tariffs with China, confirming our view that tariffs remained political tools for high trade margin with World’s second biggest economy. China’s major stock indexes have not rallied on weekly basis, the gains remained modest. Indexes : Trading Economics 

         After hitting the lowest level in three years, USD index – DXY gained this week & rose by 0.42% , still down by more than -4% in a month, and losing -8% in 2025. The loss in USD was mainly due to Trump’s policies, in other words, the confidence in the World’s reserve currency dropped. It is not that the World is looking for alternative, it is the fact that the global leaders became frustrated by the attitude of Trump’s admin, its policies & the sabotage of the existing global trading system. One month chart shows that Dow Jones, SPX & Nasdaq’s performance was positively correlated to the USD performance, which means that the investors dumped the US-denominated assets and not only USD.  Chart: Tradingview 

Will  US equity indexes remain bearish? We don’t think so as we still expect further pragmatic approach by Trump’s admin, which means that the tariffs could be lowered. What matters is the stability with clear policies. Numbers below show that the international equities indexes outperformed  US stocks by the widest margin in a long time. Equities : Charlei Bilello 

  In one month, gold gained 10% , silver lost -1%  and volatility index – fear index gained by almost 50% as the global trade tensions intensified. Chart: Tradingview 

  It is not only the weakness of USD or / and the global uncertainty , but rally in gold also simply represents the collapse of trust in traditional monetary system & fiat money. In the time of instability, tangible assets matter. Gold  is up 27% in 2025,  its best annual return since 2010 as of April 17th /2025. Gold’s returns : Charlie Bilello